（作者：电子科技大学西非研究中心团队，执笔人：吴宇亮【西非漫谈】2022年第七期，总第五十六期。整理：张海琳、孟雅琪（公共管理学院）；供稿：电子科技大学西非研究中心团队)

--本文原刊载于环球网（Huanqiu.com）“西非漫谈”栏目

链接：https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/47mECAY4n1I

Chapter 1 - Introduction

The African continent has drawn up a grand blueprint for agricultural development. AU Agenda 2063 aims to increase productivity and yield through modern agriculture. The Malabo Declaration reaffirmed the commitment that countries should strengthen agricultural investment financing (10% public spending target), end hunger by 2025, reduce stunting to 10%, maintain agricultural GDP sector growth of at least 6% per year, and create at least 30% employment in agricultural value chains for youth. However, the development wasn’t smooth. Climate change, food security, malnutrition, political instability and terrorist activities remain major challenges for sustainable agricultural development, especially in West Africa, the situation is more severe.

According to FAO report (2021), world hunger increased under the shadow of the COVID-19. Between 720 and 811 million people went hungry in 2020, more than 10% of the world's population. In the expectation of the agricultural development of West African countries, achieving the goals of UN Agenda 2030 and the AU Agenda 2063 are not predestined. Countries in the region, including The Gambia, have to face many risks and challenges. Affected by climate and rainfall, there are differences in actual agricultural planting types. For instance, Senegal’s main crops are ground nuts, rice, millet, fruits and vegetables, while the major staple crops in Nigeria are cassava, yam, maize, sorghum, rice and millet. Although there are many varieties of agricultural production, most farmers are self-sufficient in production.

1.1 Employment in agriculture has been declining steadily in West Africa. With the rapid development of tourism, West African countries has generally become or is becoming a service-driven economy. This was a result of a structural transformation over the past two decades that reallocated workers from agriculture to services rather than industry.

Figure 1 shows that dynamic downward trend in agricultural employment rates (2001-2019). During the period, the average agricultural employment in West Africa decreased from 56.06% to 41.51% of total employment, which dropped by 14.55%.

Figure 1: Employment in agriculture has been declining steadily (ECOWAS)

Source: the World Development Indicators.

Note: Employment in agriculture as a share of total employment

Specifically, Cape Verde has consistently had the lowest agricultural employment rate of 23.02% (2001) to 10.60% (2019). Meanwhile, Burkina Faso experienced the fastest decline in agricultural employment in West Africa from 78.35% (2001) to 26.21% (2019), which decreased by 52.14%. In 2019, the agricultural employment rate in Niger (72.54%), Guinea (60.65%), Guinea-Bissau (60.48%), and Sierra Leone (54.49%) all exceeded 50%, while the rest were blow the 50%.

1.2 The added value of agriculture products in West Africa has grown steadily. According to country economy data (2020), the total population of West Africa is 397,211,857 and the annual GDP is $683,722 million while per capital is $1,721. With the development of science and technology, the application of advanced agricultural technologies in West African countries has significantly improved. Moreover, international cooperation such as the UN MDGs and the African Union Initiative have also provided a solid guarantee for agricultural development.

Figure 2 shows that dynamic upward trend in Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (ECOWAS) from 2001 to 2020. In terms of international statistical practice, all of agriculture, forestry, and fishing are defined as the same category. The added value of agriculture-related (ECOWAS) has generally achieved substantial growth from $30,543.6M (2001) to $163,726.1M (2020)，which increased by 536%. All 15 countries recorded positive growth during the period, with 13 countries exceeding 100% except for two with growth rates below 100%, Liberia (80%) and Cape Verde (29%).

Figure 2: Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (ECOWAS)

Source: the World Development Indicators.

Note: The above statistics have excluded extreme data “Nigeria”,

which has increased from $18,119.2M in 2001 to $104,370.0M in 2020.

The average growth rate for the 15 countries was 318%, with Ghana showing the fastest growth from $1,873.1M to $11,195.8M, a 605% increase in 20 years. It was followed by Guinea from $615.1M to $3,711.3M (503%) and Nigeria from $8,119.2M to $104,370M (476%). Compared to above development data, The Gambia has grown from $174.8M to $384M, a cumulative increase of 120%.

1.3 Arable land in West Africa has grown slowly over the past 20 years. According to FAO data, in 2000, the area of arable land in West Africa was 75,758 (1,000 ha). After 20 years of development, the accumulated arable land increased by 9,793 (1,000 ha), a total increase of 12.93%, and an average annual growth rate of less than 1% (0.65%). As of 2019, the total arable land in West Africa was 85,551 (1,000 ha).

Figure 3: Arable land in West African countries in 2019

From: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

1.4 Agriculture is one of the most important pillar industry in West Africa. Agriculture is crucial to economic growth: in 2020, it accounted for 4.3% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Despite the impact of the COVID-19, the contribution of agriculture was positive in 2020 for West African countries apart from The Gambia, with a contribution of -0.5%.

According to the African Development Bank (AfDB) data, from 2015 to 2019, services accounted for 53.9% of GDP in West Africa. Agriculture represented 22.8%, and industry 23.3%. For example, agriculture contributes more than 60% of GDP to non-oil resource-intensive economies such as Liberia and Sierra Leone. The contribution of services is highest in Cape Verde (70.6% of GDP) due to its strong reliance on tourism (AfDB, 2021).

Chapter 2 - Agricultural Development in The Gambia: Opportunities and Challenges

Agricultural development is one of the most powerful tools to end extreme poverty, boost shared prosperity, and feed a projected 9.7 billion people by 2050. In the case of The Gambia, agriculture-driven growth, poverty reduction and food security remain at risk (World Bank, 2021).

2.1 The contribution of agriculture to national economy

Agriculture contributes to GDP of The Gambia. Agriculture is an important sector in The Gambia. The largest contributor to GDP remains the services sector, which is also the fastest growing sector. The performance of the agricultural and industrial sectors was mixed. As shown in figure 4, it accounts for about 20.55% of GDP, second only to the services sector, which accounted for 51.10% of GDP (value added) in 2020. Over the past two years, COVID-19 spread rapidly around the world. The coronavirus has had a major impact on agriculture in The Gambia. According to the World Development Indicators (2020), The Gambia’s agricultural sector has continued to under-performance, with its share of GDP falling from 25.43% in 2001 to 20.55% in 2020.

Figure 4: Sector composition of gross domestic growth (%), value added

Source: the World Development Indicators.

Agriculture contributes to employment of The Gambia. Despite a steady decline in the number of people employed in agriculture, agriculture remains a dominant sector in The Gambia, employing about 27.03% of the total work force. As shown in figure 5, both male and female workers in the agricultural sector continued to show a downward trend, with the proportion of total employment decreasing from 34.79% in 2001 to 27.03% in 2019, a cumulative decline of 7.76%. The proportion of women employed in agriculture, forestry and fisheries in The Gambia is 52.15%, one of the 20 countries with the highest proportion of women employed in agriculture, compared to the world average of 36.7% during the same period (FAO, Statistical Yearbook 2021).

Figure 5: Agricultural employment in The Gambia has been declining steadily

Source: the World Development Indicators.

Based on the ILO data, the gender gap in participation in the agriculture sector was at least 10 percentage points during the period 2001–2019. In 2001, the proportion of women working in agriculture was 45.54% compared with 27.69% for men.

By 2019, the proportion of women engaged in agricultural production in The Gambia had dropped to 33.07%, while that of men to 22.56%. According to the results of the data, women in The Gambia showed a stronger desire to leave agriculture, with a cumulative decline of 12.45%, while far exceeding the decline of men (5.13%). It is easy to understand that as the employment gap between men and women has narrowed, women are more willing to leave agriculture.

Agricultural development is of great importance in tackling hunger, malnutrition and promote rural development in The Gambia. Since 2000, through coordinated efforts of FAO, UNDP, WFP and international organizations, the country has implemented a series of food and nutrition improvement projects.

Levels of poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition in The Gambia has remained unchanged or worsened over the past decades, and The Gambia has been grappling with growing food insecurity; especially over the past five years, due to weak food production systems and the effects of droughts and floods , the food insecurity rate has risen from 5% to 8%, and The Gambia poverty rate has remained at 48%. Drought in 2018 led to a drop in food production, and in 2019 the country produced only 50% of the country's total food needs, with many facing starvation.

Figure 6: Hunger and food insecurity in The Gambia

From:https://www.fao.org/faostat/zh/#country/75

As shown in Figure 6, prevalence of undernourishment (3-year average) in The Gambia during 2000-2002 was 17.8% (0.2 million) and prevalence of moderate and severe food insecurity (three-year average) during 2014-2016 was 52.7% (1.1 million); By 2018-2020, Number of people undernourished in The Gambia was still 0.3million, and Number of moderately and severely food insecure people was 13.6% (1.3 million). Overall national food security and malnutrition crisis remains acute.

2.2 Agricultural development data in The Gambia

Geographical conditions for agricultural development. As shown in figure 7, there has been no significant decline in agricultural-related land in The Gambia. From the long-term trend, there has been a small increase, but there is still a certain lag between agricultural land and arable land planting.

According to AfDB report (2021), out of a total arable area in The Gambia of 558,000 (ha), an average of 200,000 (ha) are cultivated annually with field crops. Crops are composed of cereals such as millet, sorghum, maize and rice.

Figure 7: Cultivable land remains underutilized in The Gambia

From: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

As shown in figure 8, in 2020, The Gambia produced 421,776 tonnes of major crop products. But the production of major agricultural crops in The Gambia has declined, with the annual output falling from 467,800 tonnes in 2000 to 421,776 tonnes in 2020, a decline of 9.84%. The Gambia set a record for the highest yield of a major agricultural crop in 2010, but then saw a dramatic drop of 47.15% to 376,312 tonnes in 2020.

Figure 8: Development of major agricultural Crops in The Gambia (2000-2020)

From: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

2.3 Agricultural development is inseparable from the support of the international community

According to the Country Strategy Paper (CSP 2021-2025), the African Development Bank completed a feasibility study and stakeholder consultations on the establishment of The Gambia Risk-Sharing Agricultural Incentive Finance Facility in 2022, modeled on a similar facility in Ghana. Agricultural interventions are expected to increase developed and rehabilitated irrigation areas from 212 hectares to 287 hectares and to stimulate investment in food processing plants. The goal is to increase local production and supply of products such as rice, groundnuts, beans, poultry, and aquaculture.

According to the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs repro t(2022), The Gambia’s bilateral relations with several Asian countries continues to thrive. Between 2020 and 2021, Japan has donated D125 million worth of rice including 50 tractors and farming accessories. An additional 600 metric tons of fertilizer and 50 metric tons of groundnuts were also provided to the farming community through the support of the Japanese Government. In addition, the Chinese government also supports the agricultural development of Gambia through food aid and agricultural technical cooperation.

Chapter 3 - Challenges of Agricultural Development

Agricultural production in The Gambia relies heavily on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, which is affected by a variety of climatic factors including changes in rainfall, rising temperatures and rising sea levels. According to the Ministry of Agriculture data, about 80% of the Gambians are still depending on agriculture for its food and cash income.

3.1 Climate change and sustainable usage remains key challenges for the sector. Affected by seasonal rainfall, The Gambia's crop yields are mainly dependent on the climate; the country has not yet established a diversified agricultural development system, and the lack of response measures to deal with the negative impact of climate on the economy and production.

3.2 Agricultural production efficiency is low, it is difficult to achieve large-scale production and management of modern agriculture. Low agricultural productivity is a key factor restricting the agricultural development of The Gambia, mainly including low level of capital (human and material resources), primitive and traditional farming methods, and limited access to markets and extension services.

3.3 Affected by water erosion and wind erosion, land degradation and soil nutrient loss is serious. Generally, output is related to the use of fertilizers. The Gambia's land resources are at risk of irreversible degradation. This land degradation, combined with poor seeds and low fertilizer use, reduces agricultural productivity. Therefore, the application of yield enhancement technology and scientific fertilization is imminent, reflecting the importance of technology to improve agricultural yield and productivity. According to World Bank data, about 48% of farmers in the country use inorganic fertilizers, compared to 18% using chemical fertilizers.

3.4 The shortage of human resources, and more and more young people are unwilling to engage in agricultural labor.

The agricultural modernization of West African countries faces an inevitable challenge: Agricultural activity is a harder work, which compared with the immediate results of the service industry. Compared with the previous generation, the new generation of young Africans have received more education and have higher expectations for employment (payment, location of workplace, etc.). With the continuous development of tourism, agricultural labor productivity has always been lower than that of the service industry, the growth of agricultural total factor productivity has slowed down, and the vitality of agricultural development has been insufficient.

Chapter 4 - Suggestions for Agricultural Development

4.1 Improve domestic agricultural efficiency and actively respond to agricultural development risks and challenges. Despite the slow process of industrialization and stagnant economic development, The Gambia could establish a sustainable agricultural development model and path to make more contributions to addressing the challenges of global climate change.

Facing the challenges of climate change and environmental change, governments need to attach great importance to agricultural capacity building, and should increase investment in agricultural budgets and legislative guarantees, and actively explore agricultural development paths and supporting service systems.Increase investment in education, strengthen agriculture-related education, professional guidance and policy supervision, Rationally plan environmental protection zones and agricultural development zones to improve the overall knowledge and skills of citizens.

4.2 Accelerate integration into the international market and deepen pragmatic cooperation with traditional and emerging markets. Expand the areas of bilateral market opening, expand the agricultural product market, speed up the export of agricultural products, and increase the added value of products. Improve the export quarantine standards to meet the inspection and quarantine entry requirements of the target market. At present, the export of Gambian agricultural products to the UK and EU markets is greatly restricted; increase bilateral trade agreements with China to reduce intermediate circulation links and costs. China is the main market for Gambian peanuts, but due to the lack of bilateral agreements between Gambia and China, peanuts and fishery products are mainly exported to Vietnam (re-export) and then to the Chinese market.

4.3 Accelerate the implementation of agricultural transformation progress. Externally, deepen regional and international agricultural cooperation, learn from successful African countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, and Senegal, increase agricultural capital investment and capacity building, and vigorously introduce international capital and high-level talents. Internally, implement agricultural innovation talents and farmer education and training programs, which focuses on standardized operation, scientific management and marketing. After passing the course, all publications receive government-issued agricultural talent qualification certificates. Strive to build a modern agricultural development team with comprehensive capabilities in production, management, and marketing.

Chapter 5 - Conclusion

5.1 Agriculture has played, and continues to play a key role in national economic development, but actual budget input is failed to achieve the promised target. West Africa’s government, including The Gambia, which spending on agriculture is low and uneven.

Taking The Gambia as an example, total agriculture expenditure (4.7% over 2005-2018) falls short of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program target of 10%. According to the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs' GDP growth figures, real GDP growth in 2022 is projected at 6.8%, but The Gambia's central government expenditure budget for 2022, agriculture continues to receive relatively little budget. The total budget for agricultural expenditure accounts for 1.64% of central government budget expenditure, including 1.09% for Ministries Recurrent Budget (GLF) and 4.78% for Ministries Development Budget (GLF).

5.2 Agricultural governance should adhere to the combination of effective government and efficient markets. The government should act as a bridge between farmers and the market, support farmers to improve the quality of agricultural products, and meet the requirements and standards of the market and enterprises.

At the same time, the government could strengthen its participation in the construction of the whole agricultural industry chain, stimulate domestic consumer demand and expand exports in the international market through targeted policies, strengthen the effective connection between government management and market regulation, and guide the transformation and reform of the agricultural industry. For instance, to establish year-round vegetable production schemes, to improve production infrastructure for priority food crops and vegetables. Over the past few decades, African countries have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach in the cotton, cocoa and horticultural products industries by creating a model of order farming between farmers and large agribusiness farmers and supermarkets.

5.3 Agriculture, food security and sustainable development are critical for West African countries. West Africa is still one of the most food-insecure regions in the world. Climate change, extreme weather, and regional security challenges have exacerbated the negative effects. The COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on agriculture, economy, trade, and tourism. In particular, the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated food insecurity. Leading West African countries to become increasingly dependent on food imports and international aid.

The Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), adopted in 2003, which aims to improve the African continent's agricultural productivity and increase investment in sustainable agricultural development. After nearly 20 years, CAADP has provided significant support for agricultural development in West Africa. However, due to various reasons, agricultural development still faces many challenges. Some experts pointed out that West African countries urgently need to accelerate the process of agricultural transformation, promote "agricultural modernization technology and mechanization revolution", and achieve strategic goals such as agricultural production reform, environmental protection and end poverty.

What is described in this article is mainly a comprehensive overview of the analysis and reports of World Bank, AfDB, FAO, and other organizations on West African countries, especially The Gambia, on sustainable development of agriculture.

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